Detailed Analysis by Option
❌ Metrics That Get WORSE in Option 1:
1. Special Education: GETS WORSE THAN DOING NOTHING
Status Quo: 72% of SDC students at ideal cluster → Option 1: 61% (11% decline)
6 schools with SDC programs closed (Anne Darling, Olinder, Lowell, Canoas, Carson, Simonds) - most of any option. Options 1 and 2 are the only options where special education gets worse than the status quo.
2. Facility Quality: WORST DROP
Status Quo: 9.9/12 → Option 1: 8.7/12 (1.2 point decline - worst of all options)
3. Enrollment Balance: MOST UNEQUAL
Status Quo IQR: 195 → Option 1: 289 (creates highest imbalance - some schools overcrowded, others empty)
4. Community Fragmentation: HIGHEST
639 students split from their peers (highest of all options)
These are students assigned to different schools than the majority of their classmates - particularly harmful for students with IEPs who rely on peer relationships.
5. Equity: MOST DISPROPORTIONATE
64% of displaced students are low-income (vs 47% district average)
21% of students forced to change schools have IEPs (vs 15% district average)
Highest disparity of all three options - harms the most vulnerable families
6. Walkability
Status Quo: 87% → Option 1: 79% (8% decline = approximately 800 students lose walking access)
Students with IEPs can walk: 58% → 53% (many students with disabilities lose independent access to school)
✓ What Improves in Option 1:
Students at Ideal Schools: 24% → 51% (27% improvement)
VERDICT: Option 1 harms students with disabilities and closes schools with above-average scores. Along with Option 2, it makes special education worse than doing nothing. Evidence: nearly every metric gets worse, proving the schools being closed score higher than those remaining open on multiple criteria.
❌ Metrics That Get WORSE in Option 2:
1. Special Education: WORSENS
Status Quo: 72% → Option 2: 61% (11% decline)
4 schools with SDC programs closed (Olinder, Lowell, Terrell, Carson) - students with special needs see their programs disrupted.
2. Facility Quality: WORST OVERALL
Status Quo: 9.9/12 → Option 2: 8.6/12 (1.3 point decline - absolute worst)
3. Walkability: WORST
Status Quo: 87% → Option 2: 76% (11% decline = approximately 1,100 students lose walking access)
Students with IEPs can walk: 58% → 52% (6% decline - many students with disabilities lose independent school access)
Tied for worst with Option 3
4. Travel Distance: WORST (tied)
Status Quo: 1.58 miles → Option 2: 1.70 miles
Students with IEPs: 1.88 miles → 2.01 miles (particularly burdensome for families with disabilities)
5. 90th Percentile Travel Distance: WORST
Status Quo: 1.72 miles → Option 2: 2.17 miles
Students with the longest commutes face significantly worse travel distances - many with special transportation needs.
6. Low-Income Students Walkability: WORST
Status Quo: 79% → Option 2: 70% (9% decline - low-income families lose walking access)
7. Traffic/Capacity Issues: WORST
1,215 students above 10-year peak enrollment at receiving schools
Creates the most overcrowding and traffic congestion - particularly challenging for students with sensory sensitivities.
✓ What Improves in Option 2:
Students at Ideal Schools: 24% → 65% (41% improvement - HIGHEST)
Enrollment Balance: IQR improves to 169 (best balance)
Community Fragmentation: Only 410 students split from peers (least disruption)
⚠️ Equity Issues:
54% of displaced students are low-income (vs 47% district average) - still disproportionate
16% of students forced to change schools have IEPs (vs 15% district average)
VERDICT: Option 2 achieves the highest goal (65% at ideal schools) but at catastrophic cost to students with disabilities and vulnerable families. It disrupts special education, closes the most walkable schools with the best facilities, forces 1,100 students to give up walking to school, and creates the worst overcrowding.
❌ Metrics That Get WORSE in Option 3:
1. Enrollment Balance: ABSOLUTE WORST
Status Quo IQR: 195 → Option 3: 339
Creates massive inequality - some schools severely overcrowded, others remain small. Worst of all options.
2. Walkability: WORST (tied)
Status Quo: 87% → Option 3: 76% (11% decline = approximately 1,100 students)
Students with IEPs can walk: 58% → 52% (same as Option 2 - significant harm to students with disabilities)
Tied for worst with Option 2
3. Low-Income Students Walkability: WORST OF ALL
Status Quo: 79% → Option 3: 69% (10% decline - worst impact on low-income families)
4. Facility Quality: WORSENS
Status Quo: 9.9/12 → Option 3: 9.1/12 (0.8 point decline - better than Options 1 & 2 but still worse)
5. Community Fragmentation: SECOND WORST
647 students split from peers (second only to Option 1's 639)
Particularly harmful for students with IEPs: 12% split from peers
✓ What Changes in Option 3:
Students at Ideal Schools: 24% → 37%
LOWEST achievement - closes 8 schools for barely any improvement!
Special Education: Maintains 72% (same as status quo - at least doesn't make it worse)
Travel Distance: 1.66 miles (slightly better than Options 1 & 2)
⚠️ Equity Issues:
56% of displaced students are low-income (vs 47% district average) - disproportionate impact
16% of students forced to change schools have IEPs (vs 15% district average)
VERDICT: Option 3 is incoherent. It closes 8 schools but achieves almost nothing (only 37% at ideal vs status quo's 24%). Creates the most unequal school sizes and worst walkability for low-income families. Maximum disruption for minimum benefit.
Why This Process Is Fundamentally Flawed
Beyond the data showing that all options harm vulnerable students, the process itself has serious structural problems that prevented meaningful community input and predetermined the outcomes.
🚨 Timeline Comparison
6 months
San José Unified
Sept 2025 - Feb 2026
18+ months
Oakland Unified
January 2023 - ongoing
2+ years
San Francisco Unified
2019-2021 closure process
Result: San José's compressed 6-month timeline is 3-4 times faster than neighboring districts, preventing adequate community engagement, thorough analysis, or consideration of alternatives.
Major Process Problems:
1. Predetermined Outcomes Through "Ideal School" Framework
The district defined "ideal schools" as 500-750 students, which mathematically guaranteed closures before any community input. With current enrollment, reaching this target required closing schools - the outcome was built into the starting assumptions.
2. Undemocratic Committee Selection
All committee members were appointed by the Superintendent. No elections, no community voting, no mechanism for parents or teachers to select their own representatives. The committees had no independent mandate or democratic legitimacy.
3. Severely Limited Public Participation
• 2-minute speaking time limits per person
• 20-minute total time limit for all public comments combined
• No requirement to respond to public input
• No mechanism for ongoing community dialogue or Q&A
In a district with thousands of families, only 10 people (at 2 minutes each) could speak at any meeting.
4. Staff Controlled All Information and Options
• District staff determined which options to analyze
• Staff controlled what data was presented and when
• Committees could only choose from pre-selected options
• No independent analysis or outside experts brought in
The committees were advisory only - staff predetermined the viable options.
5. No Accountability for Disproportionate Impact
Despite tracking data showing:
• 54-64% of displaced students are low-income (vs 47% district average)
• 16-21% of displaced students have IEPs (vs 15% district average)
• Special education worsens in Options 1 & 2 (72% → 61%)
There was no mechanism to reject options that disproportionately harm vulnerable students.
6. No Appeal or Reconsideration Process
Once the Board votes, there is no process for:
• Communities to appeal based on new information
• Reconsidering if implementation problems emerge
• Adjusting based on changed circumstances
This is a one-way decision with no safety valve or course correction.
7. Inadequate Transition Planning
The process focused on which schools to close, but provided minimal detail on:
• How SDC programs will be reconstituted at receiving schools
• Traffic and parking impacts at receiving schools
• Actual capacity constraints (1,215 students above 10-year peak in Option 2)
• Support for students with IEPs during transitions
Plans focus on closures, not on successful student outcomes.
Process Verdict: The compressed timeline, undemocratic committee selection, severely limited public input, staff control of all options, and lack of accountability for disproportionate impacts combine to create a process that appears designed to implement predetermined outcomes rather than genuinely engage the community in shared decision-making.